Running a minimal sample size of 100 games, I have come up with the following numbers for starting with at least one admin hero and the spread of positive anomalies if you wish to use Terraformed Planet for 10 points.



Starting Admin-- 82% Yes, 18% No



Strange Fossils--6% (+2dust/sci)

Metallic Waters--20% (+10 happy, +1ind)

Rich Atmosphere--14% (+10 happy, +1food)

Antonov Rings--16% (+2dust, +1sci)

Low Gravity--16% (+10 happy, +1ind/pop)

Komatiite Volcano--18% (+2ind)

Friendly Locals--10% (+20happy, +1food/pop)



It would appear as though anything 14-16% is roughly equally likely to happen, perhaps even 20%, but the 6 and 10% options are much further removed.



As a comparison, for 5 points you can get Huygens Rings (+1dust, +2sci), or 8 points gets you Dust Lode (+3dust), Rich Minerals (+3ind), or Rich Soil (+3food). Thus, Komatiite Volcano is a strictly useless anomaly to get as you could get rich minerals for 2 less points. So 18% of this now reads "you got screwed". Every other anomaly you could get could be better than what you could guarantee by taking these cheaper options, depending on what you are trying to do.



In my opinion, however, non of these are worth the 10 points. Points became tighter with the recent game update, and those 2-5 points are better spent elsewhere than taking a 6 in 7-ish chance of getting something not komatiite and then an even smaller chance of getting something useful to your strategy.



In summation, never take terraformed planet. Perhaps if the anomaly choices were greater, or the few choices better, it would be worthwhile, but as it stands, it is garbage. Admin chance is very high, so legendary hero is still favorable, even with the reduction of the +25ind bonus to +15ind. Also, fleet heroes got better so they make a more viable 2nd choice than they had been.

I'd be interested to see similar results for unlucky colonists - some of the possibilities are net wins ..... and many are once you get deep enough in the tech tree.