Apheirox wrote:
Using same formula you posted in that thread with stats for level 1 flak (13 intercept) and missiles (10 evasion)



1 - (1-(4/13))^3 = ~66%



This number is good for higher techs as well as the accuracy/evasion ratio remains the same throughout. So where is my misunderstanding - the math or the mechanics? Because from my games it certainly appears flak is a lot more effective than this - a lowly 66% intercept rate basically suggests missiles have the weakest counter rather than the strongest as I assumed.

Because each flak fires three times before any missiles impact (that "rounds to reach" value).



Which means that for the stated odds of interception (66%) that any given missile has a 3.7% chance of actually reaching the target.



(1-0.66)^3



Yes, as Rounds to Reach goes up, the individual roll odds go down, but the increased number of attempts means that total success rises.

Well, I still don't understand it. I was under the impression that interception simply worked such that if interception accuracy was higher than evasion there was a 100% chance to intercept, ie. high enough interception accuracy automatically intercepts *all* missiles (up to three per flak module). This was also what the research I've seen (admittedly very little) suggested and what I felt was reflected in my own games (flak has appeared exceedingly efficient to me, just a slight amount of flak has in my experience provided complete protection against missiles). Now I see from the formula it's just a chance to intercept, not a guarantee. Perhaps my math is simply off but if I use the data from the game it suggest there is a rather low chance to intercept missiles:



Using same formula you posted in that thread with stats for level 1 flak (13 intercept) and missiles (10 evasion)



1 - (1-(4/13))^3 = ~66%



This number is good for higher techs as well as the accuracy/evasion ratio remains the same throughout. So where is my misunderstanding - the math or the mechanics? Because from my games it certainly appears flak is a lot more effective than this - a lowly 66% intercept rate basically suggests missiles have the weakest counter rather than the strongest as I assumed.

Apheirox wrote:
It is what? True? I read the thread you link but felt a crucial point was not made clear: Whether flak on succesful interception is able to switch to a new target, effectively allowing a flak to shoot down three missiles as we all believed (and my experience suggests I might add). Sorry, if you reached a better understanding could I trouble you to elaborate?

I don't see why it wouldn't. And there's a lot of empirical evidence to suggest that it does.

Draco18s wrote:
It is. /#/endless-space/forum/37-modding/thread/15715-adding-multiple-defenses-to-a-module

It is what? True? I read the thread you link but felt a crucial point was not made clear: Whether flak on succesful interception is able to switch to a new target, effectively allowing a flak to shoot down three missiles as we all believed (and my experience suggests I might add). Sorry, if you reached a better understanding could I trouble you to elaborate?

fractal wrote:
I'm fairly certain that's not true. I believe there was something in the wiki to that effect but it was either incorrect or changed in one of the earlier updates to the game - i'm not sure which. When playing a combat involving missiles you will observe that nothing interferes with a missiles flight until just before they hit. None are shot down in the intervening rounds.

They aren't shot down in the intervening rounds, but they are shot down while the others hit (watch carefully and you will see some missiles explode just before the ship, doing no damage). Also, it specifically states the 3 rounds thing in the descriptions of both missiles and flak in the game itself...

fractal wrote:
I'm fairly certain that's not true. I believe there was something in the wiki to that effect but it was either incorrect or changed in one of the earlier updates to the game - i'm not sure which. When playing a combat involving missiles you will observe that nothing interferes with a missiles flight until just before they hit. None are shot down in the intervening rounds.

It is. /#/endless-space/forum/37-modding/thread/15715-adding-multiple-defenses-to-a-module

I'm fairly certain that's not true. I believe there was something in the wiki to that effect but it was either incorrect or changed in one of the earlier updates to the game - i'm not sure which. When playing a combat involving missiles you will observe that nothing interferes with a missiles flight until just before they hit. None are shot down in the intervening rounds.

umm...not to burst your bubble...but you do know that 1 flak = 3 missile modules? It takes 3 "rounds" for the missiles to reach the target, and each flak can shoot down 1 missile per "round".